Expecting Christmas sales to go through the roof? Here’s how ADFERENCE Bid Management deals with strong seasonality

seasonal-effects-on-christmas-google ads -campaigns

ADFERENCE Bid Management for Google Ads 

With Christmas just around the corner, many web shops and service providers are preparing their campaigns for the holiday season. Questions this time of year often revolve around the extreme ups and downs in AdWords Christmas traffic, because sudden changes in keyword performance can lead to irregularities that could cause problems in automated bid management: At the beginning of the holiday season, data-driven bids might be too low because they are based on pre-Christmas performance data. After that, bids might be too high because of peaks in sales at the beginning of the season, driving up conversion rates. Around the 23rd of December, Christmas is practically over for AdWords campaigns, so bidding has to go back to normal quickly. How do we do it?


How does ADFERENCE adjust bids for Christmas?

It is true that our bids are based on historical conversion data that is collected over longer periods of time. In fact, we are able to look back to up to one year to get a thorough sense of a keyword’s and product’s performance. This is very useful for keywords that receive a small number of clicks and conversions to expand their data basis.

However, long-term performance often makes up only a small amount of the data that we use in calculating bids. We give far more weight to the most recent data. The past week could make up to about 80% of the information we use and the second to last week could weigh in with about 15%. As a result, the conversion rate of the past couple of days has the largest impact on bids by far. This allows our tool to react to extreme ups and downs very quickly.



Influence of performance data over AdWords Christmas as measured by Adference
Influence of performance data over AdWords Christmas as measured by ADFERENCE
ADFERENCE Bid Management uses the most recent conversion rates, rising and falling, to ensure that the system is highly responsive to the beginning and end of Christmas sales.

Long-tail keywords benefit from the system’s fast response, as well, but the solution is more complex for keywords and products with fewer clicks. ADFERENCE recognizes similarity between various types of keywords and products and groups them together into meaningful clusters that learn from each other. This way, sharp climbs in conversion rates for stronger keywords give less active keywords a lift, if they are relevant.

What can I do?

As a search marketing manager you might have received confusing advice on what to do with your campaigns this December. Number one on your list should be to lean back and let the ADFERENCE optimizer do its work. The algorithmic core of our system evaluates the performance of every keyword and product across varying time spans and decides how relevant that information is to the current situation. In our experience, you’ll receive the best results if you let the system work the way it was set out to do.


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